也许就是现在，或者不久的某一刻（the not-so-distant future），上周末参加球队训练的科比将会复出NBA比赛。以ESPN上提到的专业医学（medical professionals）视角来看一下从跟腱断裂中复出的NBA球员历史也许可以给我们一些指导。

通过联盟给职业篮球研究（the Association for Professional Basketball Research）的罗伯特布拉德利的一份清单，不难发现从1990年起直到科比之前一共有25名球员在其NBA生涯中遭受过跟腱断裂。（其中90年代的中锋史丹利罗伯茨经历过两次跟腱断裂）。他们之中的八个从没再打过NBA或者只打了很少的几场比赛,在德雷塞尔大学的调差研究中制造了吓人的退役率（the scary-looking retirement rate）。除了以赛亚托马斯在受伤前宣布了退役，其他的球员都是酱油型。其中的考特尼亚历山大和埃隆普罗非特两个人打过训练营或者在海外打球，但是从没再成为nba的一员。他们之中只有两个回到了NBA——包括埃尔顿布兰德—在赛季末期回归并打出了有意义的数据。移除了罗伯茨，在其第二次跟腱断裂回归的两年后离开了NBA。

因为每一名球员都是独一无二的，对科比来说更是如此。历史时能对未来预测(predicting the future)这么多，尽管这样，也该谨慎期待科比的回归。如果他真的退步了，看待这个实际问题我们不应当失落，如果他回来后在和以前一样优秀，我们可以更加感到惊喜和开心。

It might come tonight, or more likely not for a few weeks. But at some point in the not-so-distant future, Kobe Bryant, who returned to practice last weekend, will play an NBA game. So, what can we expect from Bryant? Along with the insight of medical professionals, the history of NBA players coming back from Achilles ruptures can offer a general guide.

With the help of a list compiled by the Association for Professional Basketball Research's Robert Bradley, I've found 25 players before Bryant who suffered ruptured Achilles during their NBA careers since 1990. (One of them, 1990s center Stanley Roberts, did so twice.) Of them, eight never played in the NBA again or retired after a handful of games, producing the scary-looking retirement rate researchers at Drexel University cited in their study of Achilles ruptures. Other than Hall of Famer Isiah Thomas, who had announced his retirement before the injury, the other players were largely fringe types. Two of them, Courtney Alexander and Laron Profit, played in training camps or overseas but simply never made an NBA roster again. Of the players who did return to the NBA, two more -- including Elton Brand -- came back too late in the season to produce meaningful statistics. I've also removed Roberts, who was two years removed from the NBA when he returned from his second Achilles rupture.
Bcause each player is unique -- and that's certainly true for Bryant -- history can only go so far in predicting the future. Nonetheless, managing expectations for Bryant's return is the right course of action. Being realistic about his likely decline will keep Bryant from disappointing if he does suffer a drop-off and gives him the chance to pleasantly surprise if he can return at anything resembling his previous form.

☆☆☆☆☆五星级词汇及短语
☆ the not-so-distant future 不久的将来；
☆ medical professionals 医疗专家；
☆ the Association for Professional Basketball Research 职业篮球研究；
☆ the scary-looking retirement rate  吓人的退役率；
☆ retirement rate退休率；
☆ scary  (事物）可怕的；恐怖的；吓人的；
☆ predict the future 预测未来。